Wisla Plock vs Cracovia — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 25.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Wisla Plock
39%
pick · result
Draw
28%
Cracovia
33%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Wisla Plock win 39.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Wisla Plock win. Expected goals 1.30–1.21 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.3%), 1–0 (10.3%), 0–0 (8.9%). It finished 3–1.
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Wisla Plock
| 26 Jul | A | vs Rakow | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Jul | H | vs Widzew Lodz | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Aug | A | vs Wisla | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs GKS Katowice | 0–5 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Korona Kielce | 0–2 | L |
Cracovia
| 25 Jul | A | vs Lech Poznan | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Aug | H | vs Pogon Szczecin | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Slask Wroclaw | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Rakow | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Wieczysta Krakow | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Wisla Plock (Home · 5 matches) | Cracovia (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.20 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Wisla Plock's home record; away stats use Cracovia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.