🇵🇱 Ekstraklasa·Sunday, 30 August 2026·18:15
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Widzew Lodz | 3.08 | 3.08 |
| Draw | 3.82 | 3.82 |
| Lech Poznan | 2.13 | 2.13 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketWidzew Lodz
31%
Draw
24%
Lech Poznan
45%
Widzew Lodz 1.08 xGexpected goals1.37 xG Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan win 45% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (11.8%).
Widzew Lodz score at least twice in 30%; Lech Poznan in 40%.
0–1 11.8%1–1 11.6%1–2 9.2%1–0 9.2%0–2 8.7%0–0 8.4%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Widzew Lodz goals · columns = Lech Poznan goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score48%
Over 1.5 goals71%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Over 4.5 goals10%
Widzew Lodz clean sheet26%
Lech Poznan clean sheet34%
Widzew Lodz score 2+30%
Lech Poznan score 2+40%
Widzew Lodz score 3+10%
Model vs market
| Source | Widzew Lodz | Draw | Lech Poznan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 29% | 29% | 42% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| Metis Forecast | 31% | 24% | 45% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Widzew Lodz
| 26 Jul | H | vs Motor Lublin | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Jul | A | vs Wisla Plock | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Jagiellonia | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Korona Kielce | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Slask Wroclaw | 3–3 | D |
Lech Poznan
| 25 Jul | H | vs Cracovia | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Wieczysta Krakow | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Piast Gliwice | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Widzew Lodz (Home) | Lech Poznan (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Widzew Lodz's home record; away stats use Lech Poznan's away record this season.