Widzew Lodz vs Lech Poznan — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Widzew Lodz
31%
Draw
24%
Lech Poznan
45%
pick · result
Final score
2–3
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Lech Poznan win 44.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lech Poznan win. Expected goals 1.15–1.43 against 2–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.4%), 0–1 (10.7%), 1–2 (9.4%). It finished 2–3.
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Widzew Lodz
| 26 Jul | H | vs Motor Lublin | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Jul | A | vs Wisla Plock | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Jagiellonia | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Korona Kielce | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Slask Wroclaw | 3–3 | D |
Lech Poznan
| 25 Jul | H | vs Cracovia | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Wieczysta Krakow | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Piast Gliwice | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Widzew Lodz | 3–2 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Jagiellonia | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Widzew Lodz (Home · 5 matches) | Lech Poznan (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 3.67 |
Home stats use Widzew Lodz's home record; away stats use Lech Poznan's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.