Rakow vs Motor Lublin — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 11 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 12.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Rakow
53%
pick · result
Draw
23%
Motor Lublin
24%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Rakow win 52.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Rakow win. Expected goals 1.74–1.12 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.9%), 2–1 (10.3%), 1–0 (9.6%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Rakow
| 26 Jul | H | vs Wisla Plock | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Slask Wroclaw | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Cracovia | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Jagiellonia | 2–5 | L |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Gornik Zabrze | 1–2 | L |
Motor Lublin
| 26 Jul | A | vs Widzew Lodz | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Jul | H | vs Jagiellonia | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Pogon Szczecin | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs GKS Katowice | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Korona Kielce | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Rakow (Home · 7 matches) | Motor Lublin (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.29 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Rakow's home record; away stats use Motor Lublin's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.