Rakow vs Jagiellonia — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Rakow
44%
top pick
Draw
26%
Jagiellonia
30%
result
Final score
2–5
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Jagiellonia win 29.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Rakow win. Expected goals 1.43–1.14 against 2–5 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.2%), 1–0 (10.7%), 2–1 (9.4%). It finished 2–5.
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Rakow
| 26 Jul | H | vs Wisla Plock | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Slask Wroclaw | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Cracovia | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Jagiellonia | 2–5 | L |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Gornik Zabrze | 1–2 | L |
Jagiellonia
| 25 Jul | H | vs Korona Kielce | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Jul | A | vs Motor Lublin | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Widzew Lodz | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Rakow | 5–2 | W |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Lech Poznan | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Rakow (Home · 5 matches) | Jagiellonia (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.20 | 3.75 |
Home stats use Rakow's home record; away stats use Jagiellonia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.