🇵🇱 Ekstraklasa·Sunday, 30 August 2026·12:45

Rakow

LLL

12:45

18th vs 10th

Jagiellonia

WWL

Odds comparison

Market	Pinnacle	Best
Rakow	2.15	2.15
Draw	3.67	3.67
Jagiellonia	3.26	3.26

Metis Forecast

model + market

Rakow

45%

Draw

26%

Jagiellonia

29%

Rakow 1.39 xGexpected goals1.08 xG Jagiellonia

Rakow win 45% of the current Metis Forecast.

Both teams score in 49% of simulations.

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12.3%).

Rakow score at least twice in 41%; Jagiellonia in 29%.

1–1 12.3%1–0 11.6%2–1 9.3%0–0 8.6%2–0 8.6%0–1 8.5%

Scoreline distribution

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	8.6	8.5	5.2	1.9	0.5	0.1
1	11.6	12.3	7.0	2.5	0.7	0.2
2	8.6	9.3	4.2	1.7	0.5	0.1
3	3.9	4.2	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1
4	1.3	1.4	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0
5+	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

rows = Rakow goals · columns = Jagiellonia goals · % of simulations

Match outcomes

Both teams score49%

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Over 4.5 goals10%

Rakow clean sheet34%

Jagiellonia clean sheet25%

Rakow score 2+41%

Jagiellonia score 2+29%

Rakow score 3+16%

Model vs market

Source	Rakow	Draw	Jagiellonia
Raw Metis model	42%	29%	29%
Market (de-vigged)	45%	26%	29%
Metis Forecast	45%	26%	29%

The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.

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Recent form

Rakow

26 Jul	H	vs Wisla Plock	1–2	L
2 Aug	A	vs Slask Wroclaw	1–2	L
16 Aug	A	vs Cracovia	1–2	L

Jagiellonia

25 Jul	H	vs Korona Kielce	1–0	W
31 Jul	A	vs Motor Lublin	2–1	W
9 Aug	H	vs Widzew Lodz	0–2	L

Head to head

No previous meetings found.

Model context

Stat	Rakow (Home)	Jagiellonia (Away)
BTTS rate	100.0%	100.0%
Over 2.5 rate	100.0%	100.0%
Clean sheet	0.0%	0.0%
Avg goals	3.00	3.00

Home stats use Rakow's home record; away stats use Jagiellonia's away record this season.

Rakow →Jagiellonia →🇵🇱 Ekstraklasa standings & fixtures