Rakow vs Gornik Zabrze — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Thursday, 3 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.0 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Rakow
37%
Draw
26%
Gornik Zabrze
37%
pick · result
Final score
1–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Gornik Zabrze win 37.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Gornik Zabrze win. Expected goals 1.35–1.30 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.3%), 0–1 (9.2%), 1–2 (9.0%). It finished 1–2 — one of them.
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Rakow
| 26 Jul | H | vs Wisla Plock | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Slask Wroclaw | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Cracovia | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Jagiellonia | 2–5 | L |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Gornik Zabrze | 1–2 | L |
Gornik Zabrze
| 25 Jul | H | vs Slask Wroclaw | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Radomiak Radom | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Wisla | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs GKS Katowice | 2–3 | L |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Rakow | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Rakow (Home · 7 matches) | Gornik Zabrze (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 57.1% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 42.9% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 42.9% |
| Avg goals | 4.29 | 2.29 |
Home stats use Rakow's home record; away stats use Gornik Zabrze's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.