Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 7 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Pogon Szczecin
50%
top pick
Draw
25%
result
Wisla Plock
24%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 25.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Pogon Szczecin win. Expected goals 1.72–1.18 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.9%), 2–1 (10.5%), 1–0 (9.2%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Pogon Szczecin
| 24 Jul | H | vs Legia | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Aug | A | vs Cracovia | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Motor Lublin | 3–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Wisla | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Zaglebie | 0–0 | D |
Wisla Plock
| 26 Jul | A | vs Rakow | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Jul | H | vs Widzew Lodz | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Aug | A | vs Wisla | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs GKS Katowice | 0–5 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Korona Kielce | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Pogon Szczecin (Home · 7 matches) | Wisla Plock (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| Clean sheet | 28.6% | 14.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.14 | 2.71 |
Home stats use Pogon Szczecin's home record; away stats use Wisla Plock's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.