Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom — Ekstraklasa forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Pogon Szczecin
56%
Draw
23%
Radomiak Radom
21%
Expected goals
1.97–1.06
Pogon Szczecin · Radomiak Radom
Pogon Szczecin win 56% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.9%), 2–0 (9.2%), 2–1 (9.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Pogon Szczecin win is 2–0 (9.2%).
Pogon Szczecin score at least twice in 58%; Radomiak Radom in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
Radomiak Radom goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Pogon Szczecin goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Market reference | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Metis Forecast | 56% | 23% | 21% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Pogon Szczecin | 1.71 |
| Draw | 4.00 |
| Radomiak Radom | 4.43 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Pogon Szczecin
| 24 Jul | H | vs Legia | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Aug | A | vs Cracovia | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Motor Lublin | 3–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Wisla | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Zaglebie | 0–0 | D |
Radomiak Radom
| 24 Jul | H | vs Wieczysta Krakow | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs GKS Katowice | 1–3 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Gornik Zabrze | 1–3 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Legia | 0–5 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Zaglebie | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Pogon Szczecin (Home · 6 matches) | Radomiak Radom (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 3.20 |
Home stats use Pogon Szczecin's home record; away stats use Radomiak Radom's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.