Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin — Ekstraklasa forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Piast Gliwice
41%
Draw
26%
Pogon Szczecin
32%
Expected goals
1.44–1.30
Piast Gliwice · Pogon Szczecin
Piast Gliwice win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.6%), 2–1 (9.6%), 1–0 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Piast Gliwice score at least twice in 43%; Pogon Szczecin in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Pogon Szczecin goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Piast Gliwice goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market reference | 41% | 26% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 41% | 26% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piast Gliwice | 2.35 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.28 | 2.32 | 2.30 | 2.25 | 2.26 | 2.25 | 2.35 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 3.45 | 3.45 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.45 | 3.24 | 3.62 Pinnacle |
| Pogon Szczecin | 2.97 | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.84 | 2.85 | 2.80 | 2.75 | 2.82 | 2.66 | 2.97 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Piast Gliwice
| 27 Jul | A | vs Zaglebie | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Wisla | 4–3 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Lech Poznan | 0–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Wieczysta Krakow | 3–4 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Legia | 1–1 | D |
Pogon Szczecin
| 24 Jul | H | vs Legia | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Aug | A | vs Cracovia | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Motor Lublin | 3–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Wisla | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Zaglebie | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Piast Gliwice (Home · 5 matches) | Pogon Szczecin (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 4.40 | 1.67 |
Home stats use Piast Gliwice's home record; away stats use Pogon Szczecin's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.