Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 1.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Piast Gliwice
41%
top pick
Draw
27%
Pogon Szczecin
33%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Pogon Szczecin win 32.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Piast Gliwice win. Expected goals 1.43–1.31 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.7%), 2–1 (9.4%), 1–0 (8.9%). It finished 1–2.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Piast Gliwice
| 27 Jul | A | vs Zaglebie | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Wisla | 4–3 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Lech Poznan | 0–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Wieczysta Krakow | 3–4 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Legia | 1–1 | D |
Pogon Szczecin
| 24 Jul | H | vs Legia | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Aug | A | vs Cracovia | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Motor Lublin | 3–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Wisla | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Zaglebie | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Piast Gliwice (Home · 7 matches) | Pogon Szczecin (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 85.7% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 85.7% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 14.3% | 60.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.14 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Piast Gliwice's home record; away stats use Pogon Szczecin's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.