Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 4 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.0 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Piast Gliwice
41%
pick · result
Draw
26%
GKS Katowice
33%
Final score
3–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Piast Gliwice win 40.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Piast Gliwice win. Expected goals 1.53–1.38 against 3–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.3%), 2–1 (9.2%), 1–0 (7.7%). It finished 3–0.
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Piast Gliwice
| 27 Jul | A | vs Zaglebie | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Wisla | 4–3 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Lech Poznan | 0–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Wieczysta Krakow | 3–4 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Legia | 1–1 | D |
GKS Katowice
| 26 Jul | A | vs Wisla | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Radomiak Radom | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Motor Lublin | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Wisla Plock | 5–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Gornik Zabrze | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Piast Gliwice (Home · 5 matches) | GKS Katowice (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.40 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Piast Gliwice's home record; away stats use GKS Katowice's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.