Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia — Ekstraklasa forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Piast Gliwice
36%
Draw
28%
Cracovia
36%
Expected goals
1.36–1.36
Piast Gliwice · Cracovia
Cracovia win 36% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.5%), 1–2 (8.3%), 2–1 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Piast Gliwice score at least twice in 39%; Cracovia in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Cracovia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 13.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Piast Gliwice goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 37% | 28% | 36% |
| Market reference | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Metis Forecast | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Piast Gliwice | 2.66 |
| Draw | 3.33 |
| Cracovia | 2.64 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Piast Gliwice
| 27 Jul | A | vs Zaglebie | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Wisla | 4–3 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Lech Poznan | 0–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Wieczysta Krakow | 3–4 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Legia | 1–1 | D |
Cracovia
| 25 Jul | A | vs Lech Poznan | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Aug | H | vs Pogon Szczecin | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Slask Wroclaw | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Rakow | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Wieczysta Krakow | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Piast Gliwice (Home · 6 matches) | Cracovia (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 83.3% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 83.3% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.17 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Piast Gliwice's home record; away stats use Cracovia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.