Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie — Ekstraklasa forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Motor Lublin
49%
Draw
27%
Zaglebie
24%
Expected goals
1.56–1.08
Motor Lublin · Zaglebie
Motor Lublin win 49% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.7%), 1–0 (10.9%), 2–1 (10.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Motor Lublin win is 1–0 (10.9%).
Motor Lublin score at least twice in 47%; Zaglebie in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
Zaglebie goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Motor Lublin goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Market reference | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Draw | 3.53 |
| Zaglebie | 3.90 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Motor Lublin
| 26 Jul | A | vs Widzew Lodz | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Jul | H | vs Jagiellonia | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Pogon Szczecin | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs GKS Katowice | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Korona Kielce | 1–1 | D |
Zaglebie
| 27 Jul | H | vs Piast Gliwice | 2–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Legia | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Slask Wroclaw | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Radomiak Radom | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Pogon Szczecin | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Motor Lublin (Home · 6 matches) | Zaglebie (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Motor Lublin's home record; away stats use Zaglebie's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.