Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 14.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Motor Lublin
29%
Draw
25%
result
Gornik Zabrze
46%
top pick
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 25.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Gornik Zabrze win. Expected goals 1.14–1.51 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.1%), 0–1 (10.0%), 1–2 (9.3%). It finished 0–0.
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Motor Lublin
| 26 Jul | A | vs Widzew Lodz | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Jul | H | vs Jagiellonia | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Pogon Szczecin | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs GKS Katowice | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Korona Kielce | 1–1 | D |
Gornik Zabrze
| 25 Jul | H | vs Slask Wroclaw | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Radomiak Radom | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Wisla | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs GKS Katowice | 2–3 | L |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Rakow | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Motor Lublin (Home · 7 matches) | Gornik Zabrze (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 57.1% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| Clean sheet | 28.6% | 42.9% |
| Avg goals | 2.86 | 2.29 |
Home stats use Motor Lublin's home record; away stats use Gornik Zabrze's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.