Legia vs Widzew Lodz — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 31.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Legia
53%
top pick
Draw
25%
result
Widzew Lodz
22%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 25.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Legia win. Expected goals 1.69–1.04 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.0%), 1–0 (10.7%), 2–1 (10.4%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Legia
| 24 Jul | A | vs Pogon Szczecin | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Zaglebie | 3–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Korona Kielce | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Radomiak Radom | 5–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Piast Gliwice | 1–1 | D |
Widzew Lodz
| 26 Jul | H | vs Motor Lublin | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Jul | A | vs Wisla Plock | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Jagiellonia | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Korona Kielce | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Slask Wroclaw | 3–3 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Legia (Home · 6 matches) | Widzew Lodz (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Legia's home record; away stats use Widzew Lodz's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.