Legia vs Lech Poznan — Ekstraklasa forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Legia
31%
Draw
27%
Lech Poznan
42%
Expected goals
1.27–1.50
Legia · Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.9%), 1–2 (9.0%), 0–1 (8.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Legia score at least twice in 36%; Lech Poznan in 44%.
Scoreline distribution
Lech Poznan goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 12.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Legia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Legia | 2.61 |
| Draw | 3.49 |
| Lech Poznan | 2.60 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.36–1.41 → 1.27–1.50
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Legia
| 24 Jul | A | vs Pogon Szczecin | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Zaglebie | 3–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Korona Kielce | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Radomiak Radom | 5–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Piast Gliwice | 1–1 | D |
Lech Poznan
| 25 Jul | H | vs Cracovia | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Wieczysta Krakow | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Piast Gliwice | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Widzew Lodz | 3–2 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Jagiellonia | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Legia (Home · 5 matches) | Lech Poznan (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Legia's home record; away stats use Lech Poznan's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.