Lech Poznan vs Rakow — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Lech Poznan
62%
pick · result
Draw
20%
Rakow
18%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Lech Poznan win 61.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lech Poznan win. Expected goals 1.97–1.04 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (11.5%), 1–0 (10.2%), 2–0 (10.1%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Lech Poznan
| 25 Jul | H | vs Cracovia | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Wieczysta Krakow | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Piast Gliwice | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Widzew Lodz | 3–2 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Jagiellonia | 2–1 | W |
Rakow
| 26 Jul | H | vs Wisla Plock | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Slask Wroclaw | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Cracovia | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Jagiellonia | 2–5 | L |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Gornik Zabrze | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lech Poznan (Home · 7 matches) | Rakow (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 71.4% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 42.9% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.43 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Lech Poznan's home record; away stats use Rakow's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.