Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom — Ekstraklasa forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lech Poznan
74%
Draw
16%
Radomiak Radom
11%
Expected goals
2.48–0.81
Lech Poznan · Radomiak Radom
Lech Poznan win 74% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11.6%), 3–0 (9.6%), 2–1 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Lech Poznan score at least twice in 71%; Radomiak Radom in 20%.
Scoreline distribution
Radomiak Radom goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Lech Poznan goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| Market reference | 74% | 16% | 11% |
| Metis Forecast | 74% | 16% | 11% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | 1.32 | 1.27 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.34 | 1.25 | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.29 | 1.34 Betano |
| Draw | 5.80 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 5.55 | 5.40 | 6.00 | 5.25 | 5.55 | 5.13 | 6.00 Betfair SB |
| Radomiak Radom | 8.35 | 8.00 | 8.00 | 8.45 | 7.30 | 8.50 | 8.00 | 8.40 | 6.66 | 8.50 Betfair SB |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Lech Poznan
| 25 Jul | H | vs Cracovia | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Wieczysta Krakow | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Piast Gliwice | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Widzew Lodz | 3–2 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Jagiellonia | 2–1 | W |
Radomiak Radom
| 24 Jul | H | vs Wieczysta Krakow | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs GKS Katowice | 1–3 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Gornik Zabrze | 1–3 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Legia | 0–5 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Zaglebie | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lech Poznan (Home · 5 matches) | Radomiak Radom (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 3.75 |
Home stats use Lech Poznan's home record; away stats use Radomiak Radom's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.