Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Thursday, 3 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.5 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Lech Poznan
58%
pick · result
Draw
22%
Jagiellonia
20%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Lech Poznan win 58.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lech Poznan win. Expected goals 1.97–1.11 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (10.7%), 1–1 (10.1%), 2–0 (9.2%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Lech Poznan
| 25 Jul | H | vs Cracovia | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Wieczysta Krakow | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Piast Gliwice | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Widzew Lodz | 3–2 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Jagiellonia | 2–1 | W |
Jagiellonia
| 25 Jul | H | vs Korona Kielce | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Jul | A | vs Motor Lublin | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Widzew Lodz | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Rakow | 5–2 | W |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Lech Poznan | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lech Poznan (Home · 7 matches) | Jagiellonia (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 71.4% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 42.9% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.43 | 3.33 |
Home stats use Lech Poznan's home record; away stats use Jagiellonia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.