Korona Kielce vs Rakow — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Korona Kielce
44%
pick · result
Draw
27%
Rakow
29%
Final score
3–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Korona Kielce win 44.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Korona Kielce win. Expected goals 1.49–1.19 against 3–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.8%), 1–0 (9.9%), 2–1 (9.7%). It finished 3–2.
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Korona Kielce
| 25 Jul | A | vs Jagiellonia | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Legia | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Widzew Lodz | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Motor Lublin | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Wisla Plock | 2–0 | W |
Rakow
| 26 Jul | H | vs Wisla Plock | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Slask Wroclaw | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Cracovia | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Jagiellonia | 2–5 | L |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Gornik Zabrze | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Korona Kielce (Home · 6 matches) | Rakow (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 16.7% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Korona Kielce's home record; away stats use Rakow's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.