Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Korona Kielce
35%
Draw
29%
Gornik Zabrze
36%
pick · result
Final score
0–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Gornik Zabrze win 36.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Gornik Zabrze win. Expected goals 1.22–1.25 against 0–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.7%), 0–1 (9.6%), 1–0 (9.4%). It finished 0–2.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Korona Kielce
| 25 Jul | A | vs Jagiellonia | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Legia | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Widzew Lodz | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Motor Lublin | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Wisla Plock | 2–0 | W |
Gornik Zabrze
| 25 Jul | H | vs Slask Wroclaw | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Radomiak Radom | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Wisla | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs GKS Katowice | 2–3 | L |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Rakow | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Korona Kielce (Home · 6 matches) | Gornik Zabrze (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 57.1% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 16.7% | 42.9% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 42.9% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 2.29 |
Home stats use Korona Kielce's home record; away stats use Gornik Zabrze's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.