Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice — Ekstraklasa forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Korona Kielce
45%
Draw
26%
GKS Katowice
30%
Expected goals
1.64–1.29
Korona Kielce · GKS Katowice
Korona Kielce win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.0%), 2–1 (9.4%), 1–0 (8.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Korona Kielce win is 2–1 (9.4%).
Korona Kielce score at least twice in 49%; GKS Katowice in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
GKS Katowice goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Korona Kielce goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Market reference | 45% | 26% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 26% | 30% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Korona Kielce | 2.13 |
| Draw | 3.66 |
| GKS Katowice | 3.19 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Korona Kielce
| 25 Jul | A | vs Jagiellonia | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Legia | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Widzew Lodz | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Motor Lublin | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Wisla Plock | 2–0 | W |
GKS Katowice
| 26 Jul | A | vs Wisla | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Radomiak Radom | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Motor Lublin | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Wisla Plock | 5–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Gornik Zabrze | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Korona Kielce (Home · 5 matches) | GKS Katowice (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 3.33 |
Home stats use Korona Kielce's home record; away stats use GKS Katowice's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.