Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock — Ekstraklasa forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Jagiellonia
54%
Draw
25%
Wisla Plock
21%
Expected goals
1.80–1.06
Jagiellonia · Wisla Plock
Jagiellonia win 54% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.8%), 2–1 (9.8%), 1–0 (9.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Jagiellonia win is 2–1 (9.8%).
Jagiellonia score at least twice in 54%; Wisla Plock in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
Wisla Plock goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Jagiellonia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | 2.01 |
| Draw | 3.65 |
| Wisla Plock | 3.51 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.69–1.15 → 1.80–1.06
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Jagiellonia
| 25 Jul | H | vs Korona Kielce | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Jul | A | vs Motor Lublin | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Widzew Lodz | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Rakow | 5–2 | W |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Lech Poznan | 1–2 | L |
Wisla Plock
| 26 Jul | A | vs Rakow | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Jul | H | vs Widzew Lodz | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Aug | A | vs Wisla | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs GKS Katowice | 0–5 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Korona Kielce | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Jagiellonia (Home · 5 matches) | Wisla Plock (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Jagiellonia's home record; away stats use Wisla Plock's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.