Jagiellonia vs Legia — Ekstraklasa forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Jagiellonia
34%
Draw
28%
Legia
38%
Expected goals
1.37–1.38
Jagiellonia · Legia
Legia win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.1%), 1–2 (9.2%), 0–1 (8.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Jagiellonia score at least twice in 39%; Legia in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
Legia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 13.1 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Jagiellonia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market reference | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Metis Forecast | 34% | 28% | 38% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.70 | 2.72 | 2.85 | 2.63 | 2.63 | 2.72 | 2.62 | 2.90 Bet365 |
| Draw | 3.48 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 3.32 | 3.45 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 3.32 | 3.18 | 3.60 Betfair SB |
| Legia | 2.54 | 2.20 | 2.45 | 2.40 | 2.35 | 2.40 | 2.38 | 2.40 | 2.31 | 2.54 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Jagiellonia
| 25 Jul | H | vs Korona Kielce | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Jul | A | vs Motor Lublin | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Widzew Lodz | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Rakow | 5–2 | W |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Lech Poznan | 1–2 | L |
Legia
| 24 Jul | A | vs Pogon Szczecin | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Zaglebie | 3–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Korona Kielce | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Radomiak Radom | 5–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Piast Gliwice | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Jagiellonia (Home · 4 matches) | Legia (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.80 |
Home stats use Jagiellonia's home record; away stats use Legia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.