Jagiellonia vs Legia — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Jagiellonia
35%
Draw
27%
Legia
38%
pick · result
Final score
1–3
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Legia win 37.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Legia win. Expected goals 1.38–1.39 against 1–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.0%), 1–2 (9.2%), 0–1 (8.5%). It finished 1–3.
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Jagiellonia
| 25 Jul | H | vs Korona Kielce | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Jul | A | vs Motor Lublin | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Widzew Lodz | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Rakow | 5–2 | W |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Lech Poznan | 1–2 | L |
Legia
| 24 Jul | A | vs Pogon Szczecin | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Zaglebie | 3–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Korona Kielce | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Radomiak Radom | 5–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Piast Gliwice | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Jagiellonia (Home · 6 matches) | Legia (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 71.4% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 28.6% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 28.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.29 |
Home stats use Jagiellonia's home record; away stats use Legia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.