Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice — Ekstraklasa forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Jagiellonia
44%
Draw
24%
GKS Katowice
32%
Expected goals
1.62–1.32
Jagiellonia · GKS Katowice
Jagiellonia win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.4%), 2–1 (8.8%), 1–2 (8.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Jagiellonia win is 2–1 (8.8%).
Jagiellonia score at least twice in 48%; GKS Katowice in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
GKS Katowice goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Jagiellonia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Market reference | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 24% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | 2.20 |
| Draw | 3.87 |
| GKS Katowice | 2.95 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Jagiellonia
| 25 Jul | H | vs Korona Kielce | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Jul | A | vs Motor Lublin | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Widzew Lodz | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Rakow | 5–2 | W |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Lech Poznan | 1–2 | L |
GKS Katowice
| 26 Jul | A | vs Wisla | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Radomiak Radom | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Motor Lublin | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Wisla Plock | 5–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Gornik Zabrze | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Jagiellonia (Home · 6 matches) | GKS Katowice (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 57.1% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 71.4% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Jagiellonia's home record; away stats use GKS Katowice's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.