Gornik Zabrze vs Legia — Ekstraklasa forecast, Friday, 30 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Gornik Zabrze
46%
Draw
26%
Legia
28%
Expected goals
1.65–1.24
Gornik Zabrze · Legia
Gornik Zabrze win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.3%), 2–1 (9.2%), 1–0 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Gornik Zabrze win is 2–1 (9.2%).
Gornik Zabrze score at least twice in 49%; Legia in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Legia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Gornik Zabrze goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Market reference | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 46% | 26% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Gornik Zabrze | 2.09 |
| Draw | 3.58 |
| Legia | 3.34 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Gornik Zabrze
| 25 Jul | H | vs Slask Wroclaw | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Radomiak Radom | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Wisla | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs GKS Katowice | 2–3 | L |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Rakow | 2–1 | W |
Legia
| 24 Jul | A | vs Pogon Szczecin | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Zaglebie | 3–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Korona Kielce | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Radomiak Radom | 5–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Piast Gliwice | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Gornik Zabrze (Home · 5 matches) | Legia (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Gornik Zabrze's home record; away stats use Legia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.