Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Gornik Zabrze
32%
result
Draw
27%
Lech Poznan
41%
top pick
Final score
2–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Gornik Zabrze win 32.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lech Poznan win. Expected goals 1.27–1.52 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.6%), 1–2 (8.4%), 2–1 (8.1%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Gornik Zabrze
| 25 Jul | H | vs Slask Wroclaw | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Radomiak Radom | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Wisla | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs GKS Katowice | 2–3 | L |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Rakow | 2–1 | W |
Lech Poznan
| 25 Jul | H | vs Cracovia | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Wieczysta Krakow | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Piast Gliwice | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Widzew Lodz | 3–2 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Jagiellonia | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Gornik Zabrze (Home · 6 matches) | Lech Poznan (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 83.3% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.80 |
Home stats use Gornik Zabrze's home record; away stats use Lech Poznan's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.