🇵🇱 Ekstraklasa·Sunday, 30 August 2026·15:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Gornik Zabrze | 1.95 | 1.95 |
| Draw | 3.69 | 3.69 |
| GKS Katowice | 3.64 | 3.64 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketGornik Zabrze
49%
Draw
25%
GKS Katowice
26%
Gornik Zabrze 1.61 xGexpected goals1.08 xG GKS Katowice
Gornik Zabrze win 49% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12.1%).
Gornik Zabrze score at least twice in 48%; GKS Katowice in 30%.
1–1 12.1%1–0 10.0%2–1 9.4%2–0 8.9%0–0 7.4%0–1 6.8%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Gornik Zabrze goals · columns = GKS Katowice goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score53%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Over 4.5 goals14%
Gornik Zabrze clean sheet34%
GKS Katowice clean sheet20%
Gornik Zabrze score 2+48%
GKS Katowice score 2+30%
Gornik Zabrze score 3+22%
Model vs market
| Source | Gornik Zabrze | Draw | GKS Katowice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 50% | 27% | 24% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Metis Forecast | 49% | 25% | 26% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Gornik Zabrze
| 25 Jul | H | vs Slask Wroclaw | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Radomiak Radom | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Wisla | 2–1 | W |
GKS Katowice
| 26 Jul | A | vs Wisla | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Radomiak Radom | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Motor Lublin | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Wisla Plock | 5–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Gornik Zabrze (Home) | GKS Katowice (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Gornik Zabrze's home record; away stats use GKS Katowice's away record this season.