Gornik Zabrze vs GKS Katowice — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Gornik Zabrze
50%
top pick
Draw
25%
GKS Katowice
25%
result
Final score
2–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave a GKS Katowice win 24.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Gornik Zabrze win. Expected goals 1.62–1.07 against 2–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.8%), 1–0 (10.4%), 2–1 (9.8%). It finished 2–3.
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Gornik Zabrze
| 25 Jul | H | vs Slask Wroclaw | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Radomiak Radom | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Wisla | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs GKS Katowice | 2–3 | L |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Rakow | 2–1 | W |
GKS Katowice
| 26 Jul | A | vs Wisla | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Radomiak Radom | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Motor Lublin | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Wisla Plock | 5–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Gornik Zabrze | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Gornik Zabrze (Home · 4 matches) | GKS Katowice (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Gornik Zabrze's home record; away stats use GKS Katowice's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.