GKS Katowice vs Cracovia — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 11.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
GKS Katowice
41%
pick · result
Draw
26%
Cracovia
33%
Final score
3–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a GKS Katowice win 41.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a GKS Katowice win. Expected goals 1.53–1.35 against 3–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.2%), 2–1 (8.9%), 1–2 (7.9%). It finished 3–2.
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GKS Katowice
| 26 Jul | A | vs Wisla | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Radomiak Radom | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Motor Lublin | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Wisla Plock | 5–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Gornik Zabrze | 3–2 | W |
Cracovia
| 25 Jul | A | vs Lech Poznan | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Aug | H | vs Pogon Szczecin | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Slask Wroclaw | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Rakow | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Wieczysta Krakow | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | GKS Katowice (Home · 6 matches) | Cracovia (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 83.3% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.83 | 2.67 |
Home stats use GKS Katowice's home record; away stats use Cracovia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.