Cracovia vs Gornik Zabrze — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Cracovia
38%
top pick
Draw
28%
Gornik Zabrze
34%
result
Final score
0–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Gornik Zabrze win 34.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Cracovia win. Expected goals 1.38–1.30 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.3%), 2–1 (8.5%), 1–0 (8.5%). It finished 0–1.
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Cracovia
| 25 Jul | A | vs Lech Poznan | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Aug | H | vs Pogon Szczecin | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Slask Wroclaw | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Rakow | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Wieczysta Krakow | 3–2 | W |
Gornik Zabrze
| 25 Jul | H | vs Slask Wroclaw | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Radomiak Radom | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Wisla | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs GKS Katowice | 2–3 | L |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Rakow | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Cracovia (Home · 7 matches) | Gornik Zabrze (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 71.4% | 57.1% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 42.9% |
| Avg goals | 2.86 | 2.29 |
Home stats use Cracovia's home record; away stats use Gornik Zabrze's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.