Viborg vs Horsens — Danish Superliga forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Viborg
62%
Draw
21%
Horsens
17%
Expected goals
2.09–1.06
Viborg · Horsens
Viborg win 62% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10.8%), 1–1 (9.7%), 2–0 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Viborg score at least twice in 63%; Horsens in 28%.
Scoreline distribution
Horsens goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Viborg goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Market reference | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 62% | 21% | 17% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Viborg | 1.55 |
| Draw | 4.42 |
| Horsens | 5.39 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Viborg
| 24 Jul | H | vs Odense | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Brondby | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Aug | A | vs Sonderjyske | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs AGF | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs FC Copenhagen | 4–0 | W |
Horsens
| 26 Jul | H | vs FC Nordsjaelland | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Midtjylland | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Brondby | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Odense | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Lyngby | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 28 Aug 26 | HorsensvsViborg | 2 – 3 |
Viborg: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Viborg (Home · 6 matches) | Horsens (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 4.20 |
Home stats use Viborg's home record; away stats use Horsens's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.