Midtjylland vs Lyngby — Danish Superliga forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Midtjylland
69%
Draw
18%
Lyngby
14%
Expected goals
2.44–0.95
Midtjylland · Lyngby
Midtjylland win 69% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (9.9%), 2–1 (8.9%), 3–0 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Midtjylland score at least twice in 69%; Lyngby in 25%.
Scoreline distribution
Lyngby goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Midtjylland goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| Market reference | 69% | 18% | 14% |
| Metis Forecast | 69% | 18% | 14% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Midtjylland
| 26 Jul | A | vs Sonderjyske | 3–2 | W |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Horsens | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Lyngby | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Randers | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Silkeborg | 1–1 | D |
Lyngby
| 26 Jul | A | vs FC Copenhagen | 2–3 | L |
| 1 Aug | H | vs AGF | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Randers | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Midtjylland | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Horsens | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 16 Aug 26 | LyngbyvsMidtjylland | 1 – 1 |
Midtjylland: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Midtjylland (Home · 5 matches) | Lyngby (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 3.80 |
Home stats use Midtjylland's home record; away stats use Lyngby's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.