Horsens vs Sonderjyske — Danish Superliga forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Horsens
39%
Draw
27%
Sonderjyske
33%
Expected goals
1.43–1.29
Horsens · Sonderjyske
Horsens win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.0%), 2–1 (8.6%), 1–0 (8.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Horsens score at least twice in 42%; Sonderjyske in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Sonderjyske goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Horsens goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market reference | 39% | 27% | 33% |
| Metis Forecast | 39% | 27% | 33% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Horsens | 2.43 |
| Draw | 3.47 |
| Sonderjyske | 2.86 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Horsens
| 26 Jul | H | vs FC Nordsjaelland | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Midtjylland | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Brondby | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Odense | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Lyngby | 2–1 | W |
Sonderjyske
| 26 Jul | H | vs Midtjylland | 2–3 | L |
| 3 Aug | A | vs Odense | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Aug | H | vs Viborg | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Aug | A | vs Brondby | 2–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs FC Nordsjaelland | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
| 6 Sept 26 | SonderjyskevsHorsens | 2 – 5 |
Horsens: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Horsens (Home · 6 matches) | Sonderjyske (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Horsens's home record; away stats use Sonderjyske's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.