FC Nordsjaelland vs AGF — Danish Superliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 31.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
FC Nordsjaelland
53%
pick · result
Draw
23%
AGF
24%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a FC Nordsjaelland win 53.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a FC Nordsjaelland win. Expected goals 1.78–1.16 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.8%), 2–1 (10.5%), 1–0 (9.2%). It finished 2–0.
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FC Nordsjaelland
| 26 Jul | A | vs Horsens | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Randers | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Silkeborg | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Sonderjyske | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Brondby | 3–1 | W |
AGF
| 25 Jul | H | vs Brondby | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Lyngby | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Viborg | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Odense | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Randers | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | FC Nordsjaelland (Home · 6 matches) | AGF (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 71.4% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 57.1% |
| Clean sheet | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.17 | 2.86 |
Home stats use FC Nordsjaelland's home record; away stats use AGF's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.