Brondby vs AGF — Danish Superliga forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Brondby
48%
Draw
24%
AGF
27%
Expected goals
1.74–1.26
Brondby · AGF
Brondby win 48% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.3%), 2–1 (9.6%), 1–0 (7.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Brondby win is 2–1 (9.6%).
Brondby score at least twice in 52%; AGF in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
AGF goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Brondby goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Market reference | 48% | 24% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 48% | 24% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Brondby | 1.99 |
| Draw | 3.86 |
| AGF | 3.45 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Brondby
| 25 Jul | A | vs AGF | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Viborg | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Horsens | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Aug | H | vs Sonderjyske | 3–2 | W |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Silkeborg | 3–1 | W |
AGF
| 25 Jul | H | vs Brondby | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Lyngby | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Viborg | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Odense | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Randers | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 25 Jul 26 | AarhusvsBrondby | 1 – 1 |
Brondby: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Brondby (Home · 6 matches) | AGF (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Brondby's home record; away stats use AGF's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.