AGF vs Viborg — Danish Superliga forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
AGF
39%
Draw
26%
Viborg
35%
Expected goals
1.50–1.38
AGF · Viborg
AGF win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.1%), 2–1 (8.7%), 1–2 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
AGF score at least twice in 44%; Viborg in 40%.
Scoreline distribution
Viborg goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AGF goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Market reference | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Metis Forecast | 39% | 26% | 35% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| AGF | 2.43 |
| Draw | 3.66 |
| Viborg | 2.74 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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AGF
| 25 Jul | H | vs Brondby | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Lyngby | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Viborg | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Odense | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Randers | 1–2 | L |
Viborg
| 24 Jul | H | vs Odense | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Brondby | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Aug | A | vs Sonderjyske | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs AGF | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs FC Copenhagen | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
| 14 Aug 26 | ViborgvsAarhus | 2 – 1 |
AGF: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | AGF (Home · 5 matches) | Viborg (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 20.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.00 |
Home stats use AGF's home record; away stats use Viborg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.