AGF come into this in patchy form, managing just one win in their last five, but their home record remains a strength and they sit second in the table with a defensive foundation that stands out. Conceding under a goal per game at home this season, with a clean sheet rate well above the league norm, they have the structure to control this fixture. Sonderjyske arrive in poor shape, winless in five away outings and conceding nearly two goals per game on the road.

The head-to-head record slightly favours AGF, who are unbeaten across the last three meetings. With both sides sitting below the league average for BTTS and goals, this looks like a lower-scoring affair than the division typically produces. The data suggests AGF should have enough to see this out without being troubled too heavily, and the visitors look stretched to find a foothold here.