AGF vs Silkeborg — Danish Superliga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
AGF
65%
top pick
Draw
19%
result
Silkeborg
16%
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 19.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an AGF win. Expected goals 2.09–1.04 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (11.9%), 2–0 (10.2%), 1–0 (9.8%). It finished 2–2.
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AGF
| 25 Jul | H | vs Brondby | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Lyngby | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Viborg | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Odense | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Randers | 1–2 | L |
Silkeborg
| 27 Jul | A | vs Randers | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | H | vs FC Copenhagen | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Aug | H | vs Odense | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs FC Nordsjaelland | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Brondby | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | AGF (Home · 4 matches) | Silkeborg (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Home stats use AGF's home record; away stats use Silkeborg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.