Aarhus vs Lyngby — Danish Superliga forecast, Friday, 20 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Aarhus
55%
Draw
23%
Lyngby
22%
Expected goals
1.97–1.09
Aarhus · Lyngby
Aarhus win 55% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.9%), 2–0 (8.9%), 2–1 (8.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Aarhus win is 2–0 (8.9%).
Aarhus score at least twice in 57%; Lyngby in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Lyngby goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Aarhus goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 63% | 22% | 16% |
| Market reference | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 55% | 23% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
No recent results.
Lyngby
| 26 Jul | A | vs FC Copenhagen | 2–3 | L |
| 1 Aug | H | vs AGF | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Randers | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Midtjylland | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Horsens | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Aarhus (Home · no matches) | Lyngby (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 57.1% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 57.1% |
| Clean sheet | — | 14.3% |
| Avg goals | — | 3.57 |
Home stats use Aarhus's home record; away stats use Lyngby's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.