Aarhus vs Horsens — Danish Superliga forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Aarhus
59%
Draw
22%
Horsens
19%
Expected goals
2.09–1.11
Aarhus · Horsens
Aarhus win 59% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.1%), 2–1 (9.6%), 2–0 (8.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Aarhus win is 2–1 (9.6%).
Aarhus score at least twice in 61%; Horsens in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Horsens goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Aarhus goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Market reference | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 59% | 22% | 19% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
No recent results.
Horsens
| 26 Jul | H | vs FC Nordsjaelland | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Midtjylland | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Brondby | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Odense | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Lyngby | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Aarhus (Home · no matches) | Horsens (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | — | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 3.67 |
Home stats use Aarhus's home record; away stats use Horsens's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.