Wrexham vs Wolves — Championship forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Wrexham
28%
Draw
28%
Wolves
44%
Expected goals
1.25–1.49
Wrexham · Wolves
Wolves win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.1%), 1–2 (10.6%), 0–1 (10.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Wolves win is 1–2 (10.6%).
Wrexham score at least twice in 35%; Wolves in 45%.
Scoreline distribution
Wolves goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 13.1 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Wrexham goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 27% | 32% |
| Market reference | 28% | 28% | 44% |
| Metis Forecast | 28% | 28% | 44% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Wrexham
| 19 Sept | H | vs Southampton | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sept | A | vs West Ham | 0–6 | L |
Wolves
| 20 Sept | H | vs West Brom | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Sheffield Utd | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.