Wrexham vs Middlesbrough — Championship forecast, Wednesday, 4 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Wrexham
23%
Draw
23%
Middlesbrough
54%
Expected goals
1.18–1.90
Wrexham · Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough win 54% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.8%), 1–2 (10.1%), 0–2 (8.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Middlesbrough win is 1–2 (10.1%).
Wrexham score at least twice in 33%; Middlesbrough in 57%.
Scoreline distribution
Middlesbrough goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 10.8 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Wrexham goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| Market reference | 23% | 23% | 54% |
| Metis Forecast | 23% | 23% | 54% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Wrexham
| 19 Sept | H | vs Southampton | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sept | A | vs West Ham | 0–6 | L |
Middlesbrough
| 19 Sept | A | vs Birmingham | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sept | H | vs Millwall | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Norwich | 4–3 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.