Wolves vs Charlton — Championship forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Championship·Saturday, 21 November 2026·15:00
WolvesExpected goalsCharlton
2.25 xG0.68 xG
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Wolves
73%
Draw
17%
Charlton
10%
Expected goals
2.25–0.68
Wolves · Charlton
Wolves win 73% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (13.8%), 1–0 (11.8%), 3–0 (10.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 44% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Wolves score at least twice in 66%; Charlton in 15%.
Scoreline distribution
Charlton goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Wolves goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score44%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Over 4.5 goals17%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Wolves clean sheet51%
Charlton clean sheet10%
Wolves score 2+66%
Charlton score 2+15%
Wolves score 3+39%
Charlton score 3+3%
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 72% | 19% | 9% |
| Market reference | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| Metis Forecast | 73% | 17% | 10% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
2–013.8%
1–011.8%
3–010.2%
2–19.5%
1–17.9%
3–17.0%
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Wolves
| 20 Sept | H | vs West Brom | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Sheffield Utd | 1–0 | W |
Charlton
| 19 Sept | A | vs Cardiff | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Portsmouth | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Sept | H | vs QPR | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.