Wolverhampton vs Watford — Championship forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Wolverhampton
72%
Draw
18%
Watford
11%
Expected goals
2.08–0.84
Wolverhampton · Watford
Wolverhampton win 72% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (13.4%), 1–0 (13.2%), 2–0 (12.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 39% of outcomes; the other 61% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Wolverhampton score at least twice in 64%; Watford in 20%.
Scoreline distribution
Watford goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Wolverhampton goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Market reference | 72% | 18% | 11% |
| Metis Forecast | 72% | 18% | 11% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
No recent results.
Watford
| 18 Sept | A | vs Bristol City | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Stoke City | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.