West Ham vs Preston — Championship forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Championship·Saturday, 21 November 2026·15:00
West HamExpected goalsPreston
2.93 xG0.83 xG
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
West Ham
81%
Draw
12%
Preston
7%
Expected goals
2.93–0.83
West Ham · Preston
West Ham win 81% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10.3%), 3–0 (9.8%), 2–1 (8.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
West Ham score at least twice in 80%; Preston in 20%.
Scoreline distribution
Preston goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 7.2 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: West Ham goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score54%
Over 1.5 goals89%
Over 2.5 goals73%
Over 3.5 goals52%
Over 4.5 goals32%
Team scoring & clean sheets
West Ham clean sheet44%
Preston clean sheet5%
West Ham score 2+80%
Preston score 2+20%
West Ham score 3+56%
Preston score 3+5%
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| Market reference | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| Metis Forecast | 81% | 12% | 7% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
2–010.3%
3–09.8%
2–18.7%
3–18.4%
4–07.1%
1–06.7%
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West Ham
| 19 Sept | A | vs Millwall | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Wrexham | 6–0 | W |
Preston
| 19 Sept | A | vs QPR | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Lincoln | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.