West Ham United vs Southampton — Championship forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
West Ham United
57%
Draw
22%
Southampton
21%
Expected goals
1.68–1.11
West Ham United · Southampton
West Ham United win 57% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (13.8%), 1–0 (12.8%), 1–1 (10.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 37% of outcomes; the other 63% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
West Ham United score at least twice in 53%; Southampton in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Southampton goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 13.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: West Ham United goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Market reference | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| Metis Forecast | 57% | 22% | 21% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
No recent results.
Southampton
| 19 Sept | A | vs Wrexham | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Bristol City | 4–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.