West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City — Championship forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
West Bromwich Albion
40%
Draw
28%
Birmingham City
32%
Expected goals
1.47–1.26
West Bromwich Albion · Birmingham City
West Bromwich Albion win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.2%), 2–1 (8.5%), 1–0 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
West Bromwich Albion score at least twice in 43%; Birmingham City in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Birmingham City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: West Bromwich Albion goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Market reference | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.