Watford vs Stoke City — Championship result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Watford
41%
top pick
Draw
28%
Stoke City
31%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Stoke City win 31.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Watford win. Expected goals 1.48–1.16 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.2%), 0–1 (8.6%), 1–2 (8.4%). It finished 1–2 — one of them.
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Watford
| 18 Sept | A | vs Bristol City | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Stoke City | 1–2 | L |
Stoke City
| 19 Sept | H | vs Sheffield Utd | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Watford | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.