Watford vs Middlesbrough — Championship forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Watford
17%
Draw
20%
Middlesbrough
62%
Expected goals
0.98–2.08
Watford · Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough win 62% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–2 (10.2%), 1–2 (9.8%), 1–1 (9.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Watford score at least twice in 26%; Middlesbrough in 62%.
Scoreline distribution
Middlesbrough goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.0 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 2.4 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Watford goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 15% | 22% | 63% |
| Market reference | 17% | 20% | 62% |
| Metis Forecast | 17% | 20% | 62% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Watford
| 18 Sept | A | vs Bristol City | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Stoke City | 1–2 | L |
Middlesbrough
| 19 Sept | A | vs Birmingham | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sept | H | vs Millwall | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Norwich | 4–3 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.