Watford vs Lincoln City — Championship forecast, Tuesday, 3 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Watford
40%
Draw
28%
Lincoln City
32%
Expected goals
1.39–1.28
Watford · Lincoln City
Watford win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.2%), 2–1 (9.4%), 1–0 (9.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Watford score at least twice in 41%; Lincoln City in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Lincoln City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Watford goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 34% | 28% | 39% |
| Market reference | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
Watford
| 18 Sept | A | vs Bristol City | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Stoke City | 1–2 | L |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.