Watford vs Burnley — Championship forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Watford
32%
Draw
26%
Burnley
42%
Expected goals
1.25–1.38
Watford · Burnley
Burnley win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.3%), 0–1 (10.5%), 1–2 (10.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Burnley win is 0–1 (10.5%).
Watford score at least twice in 35%; Burnley in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
Burnley goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 12.3 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Watford goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 28% | 32% |
| Market reference | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Metis Forecast | 32% | 26% | 42% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Watford
| 18 Sept | A | vs Bristol City | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Stoke City | 1–2 | L |
Burnley
| 19 Sept | H | vs Derby | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Swansea | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.