Swansea vs West Brom — Championship forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Championship·Saturday, 21 November 2026·15:00
SwanseaExpected goalsWest Brom
1.37 xG1.25 xG
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Swansea
38%
Draw
29%
West Brom
33%
Expected goals
1.37–1.25
Swansea · West Brom
Swansea win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.6%), 1–0 (8.7%), 0–0 (8.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Swansea score at least twice in 40%; West Brom in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
West Brom goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 13.6 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Swansea goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score54%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Over 4.5 goals13%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Swansea clean sheet29%
West Brom clean sheet25%
Swansea score 2+40%
West Brom score 2+35%
Swansea score 3+16%
West Brom score 3+13%
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Market reference | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Metis Forecast | 38% | 29% | 33% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
1–113.6%
1–08.7%
0–08.4%
2–18.3%
0–18.3%
1–28.0%
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Swansea
| 19 Sept | A | vs Lincoln | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Burnley | 3–1 | W |
West Brom
| 20 Sept | A | vs Wolves | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs QPR | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Sept | A | vs Derby | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.